Decision analysis (draw decision tree)

Task 2.2:

The deliverable is a short report that should include a decision tree for the decision problem of Task 2.3 (see Additional Information – Part 1 for more details). The decision tree should be complete but purely qualitative (no quantitative information is required). All assumptions and design choices must be explained and justified.

Decision Tree

The decision tree is well designed and structured. The design approach allows for uncovering relevant aspects of the problem.

All design choices are well explained and justified, using correct Decision Analysis reasoning.

The decision tree is well designed and structured.

All design choices are explained and justified, using correct Decision Analysis reasoning, with minor faults or shortcomings.

The decision tree design and structure present relevant shortcomings and problems that affect future analysis.

The design choices are not always explained and justified, nor is Decision Analysis reasoning extensively applied.

The decision tree design and structure present serious shortcomings and problems that make it almost useless (for example, relevant alternatives are completely absent).

The design choices are not always explained and justified, nor is Decision Analysis reasoning extensively applied.

The diagram is useless, or it does not correspond to a decision tree at all.

The design choices are not properly explained and justified. Decision Analysis reasoning applied.

Task 2,3 Part 1:

  • Describe the scope and goal of this decision problem.
  • Draw an influence diagram and a decision tree that could be used to support the decision
  • process (do not include any numbers such as probabilities of events or values for the objectives for each possible outcome). More than one objective must be considered and included in these diagrams.

  • Explain the choices and assumptions you made when designing these diagrams. You can include your own ideas, alternatives, and uncertainties if you wish, provided they are well justified.
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